Ten years following the UK stumbled into a hasty public vote that split the nation and unleashed chaos, a caution is issued from across the Irish Sea: it could happen again.
The government and electorate drifted into Brexit and the identical may happen with a national vote on a unified Ireland, initiating disturbances for which no one is prepared.
That is the message from two leading writers from either side of the Irish border who have joined forces to scrutinise the pros and cons of Northern Ireland departing the UK to establish a different country with the Republic of Ireland.
Governmental Establishments Not Ready
The author and columnist and The Northern Ireland editor, have concluded that the political establishments in Ireland and Britain are woefully unprepared for a potentially contentious and seismic referendum.
"The crucial insight of Brexit has gone unabsorbed, which is that events can come out of the blue and can gather momentum rapidly," the commentator said. "In my opinion that the political architecture of our archipelago remains very unstable."
Released Volume Aims to Stir Debate
The duo have analysed the governmental, economic and cultural reasons for any structural alteration in a book, Examining Irish Unification, published by the Dublin-based Royal Irish Academy.
They aim to stir debate on the matter with a roadshow of public talks that will lead them to Westminster in the coming weeks.
"What troubles everyone, or must worry every person, is the Brexit vote of 2016," commented O’Toole.
"We must avoid a national vote on a yes-no, unclear proposal whose implications have not been spelled out because then you land with an extraordinarily split population where those defeated are resistant to losing and the victorious side lack clarity exactly what it is that they have achieved."
Governmental Mandate
Under the Good Friday agreement, the Northern Ireland secretary of state should call a public vote on Irish unity if it is indicated that a majority would approve.
Sinn Féin and other pro-unification groups claim that moment is imminent, and a non-profit called Ireland’s Future has built momentum, but both governments and pro-UK factions downplay the prospect, resulting in ambiguity whether or when there will be a referendum.
Absence of Substantive Discussion
Partisan language supporting and opposing unification has obscured the lack of substantive discussion, said the journalist.
"Many are for or against the idea but the concrete planning which might go beyond that to make it possible is mostly absent. A lot has gone on in academia but hardly any elected officials or activists want to engage with even the fundamentals. For instance, what type of nation should be desired? Centralised? Decentralised?"
Volume's Strategy
In the volume, no writer supports unity or the current situation. Both writes two essays that strive for impartiality in laying out the rationale for a united Ireland and the case against, gathering economic and social figures, previous instances and governmental frameworks.
Discussions cover flags and symbols, duties, health services, elderly benefits, national debt responsibilities and the danger of pro-UK militancy. The aim is to enlighten and encourage dialogue.
"There is significant curiosity in the topic but there hasn't quite been a discussion," said the writer. "Dialogue implies an acceptance of the notion that there might be good arguments on both sides."
Dual Referendums
A referendum in Northern Ireland would also trigger one in the republic, where citizens report they prefer unity but refuse increased taxation or adopting a alternative symbol to recognise pro-UK communities' British identity.
"The Irish government does need to work out what the offer from nationalist groups is other than just saying: 'We seek a unified Ireland and we value you'," remarked the commentator.
Probability of Referendum
The journalist considers a national vote in his lifetime is likely and that it could happen suddenly. "You could have just a mad or a bad or a negligent official who states: 'Let's just do this and settle the matter.'"
Both nationalists and unionists have reasonable, legitimate perspectives, he said. "One side will prevail in this matter and somebody will ultimately be defeated but both parties has has valuable insights to learn from the opposing viewpoints."
Appeal for More Extensive Debate
Westminster must engage with the discussion, stated O’Toole. "This involves your state. It's a British issue equally as it is an Irish issue."
